Key Data:

On October 18, 2021, the National Bureau of Statistics released China’s latest economic data by 2021 Q3：

1.       General:

a)  China's economic output rose 4.9 percent on both a one-year and two-year basis in the third quarter

b)  Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 9.8% year over year in its first three quarters, resulting in an average growth of 5.2% in the last two years.

c)  The country's Q3 GDP grew 4.9% year over year, slower than the 18.3% growth in Q1 and 7.9 percent in Q2.

2.       Industrial and investment data:

a)  Value-added industrial output went up 11.8% year over year in the first three quarters

b)  Net exports contributed 19.5% to the GDP increase. And cross-border e-commerce achieves a growth rate of 20.1% in the first three quarters.

c)  Retail sales of consumer goods jumped 16.4% year on year in the first three quarters

d)  Fixed-assets investment grew by 7.3% in the first nine months;

e)  Property development investment hiked by 8.8%;

3.       Employment: In September, urban unemployment rates stood at 4.9%

Facts:

1.       Major economic indicators showed continued improvements across the board

2.       Consumption contributed the largest share to the economic growth in the first nine months of 2021.

3.       China added 10.45 million new urban jobs in the first three quarters.

4.       High-tech manufacturing and ICT industries went up in 2-digit growth.

General Analysis and Forecast:

1.       Producer Price Index (PPI) may remain high for a period of time due to rise in global energy price and energy supply pressure in some regions.  

2.       A NBS spokesperson cautioned against rising uncertainties in the international environment and uneven recovery in the domestic economy. Financial measures or monetary policies may be used in Q4 to ensure the national economic goals for 2021.

3.       One of the biggest challenges may come from the investment sector, as market expectations for the property market are trending down with the banks' tightening home loan requirements.

4.       Official release shows confidence in achieving the 6% growth in GDP of 2021.

5.       Innovative industries, new energy and smart products are expected to keep the high growth rate.

6.       Domestic consumption and cross-border exportation are still likely to be critical sectors for stabilizing growth. 

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